The Rule 5 Draft takes place on the final day of Winter Meetings in early December, but the deadline to protect players by adding them to a team’s 40-man roster is Tuesday.
In recent years, the Red Sox have reaped the benefits of the Rule 5 Draft, most notably in swiping pitcher Garrett Whitlock from the Yankees in 2021. But they’ve also been on the losing side. Last winter, the Red Sox did not protect right-hander Noah Song. He was eligible for the Rule 5 Draft but was in the process of applying for a waiver from the Navy and had not been cleared. The Philadelphia Phillies took a chance and Song’s waiver was cleared, allowing him to join the Phillies in spring training. The Red Sox were fortunate, in a sense — a back injury kept him out until June and over the course of the summer, a quick ramp up wasn’t enough time to get him big-league ready. He couldn’t stick on the Phillies active roster and he was returned to the Red Sox.
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Song is eligible again this year and it’s possible the Red Sox protect him to avoid losing him again. There’s also a chance they gamble (again) knowing that he couldn’t stick in the majors last year so there’s a slim chance he would do so this year.
How new chief baseball officer Craig Breslow evaluates Song’s future will be noteworthy.
As a reminder, players selected in the Rule 5 Draft must remain on a team’s active 26-man roster the entire season, or be offered back to their original team.
Last year the Red Sox protected five players from the Rule 5 Draft: pitchers Chris Murphy and Brandon Walter, outfielder Wilyer Abreu, infielder David Hamilton and infielder/outfielder Ceddanne Rafaela.
At the moment, the Red Sox roster stands at 37. But the non-tender deadline is Nov. 17, meaning more spots could be open soon. Second baseman Luis Urias, in particular, who’s expected to make $4.7 million in arbitration, would seem like a candidate to be designated for assignment to clear another roster space. Last week, however, Breslow did mention Urias as being in the mix at second base next year.
Other potential candidates who could be designated for assignment to clear room on the 40-man include right-handers Logan Gillaspie, Mauricio Llovera and Zack Weiss. It’s also possible Bobby Dalbec is designated unless the Red Sox feel they can include him in a trade this winter.
That means the Red Sox could have some open roster spots open while, of course, being mindful of having enough space for players they’ll add via trade or free agency this winter.
With that in mind here’s a look at which players could be added to the 40-man roster to protect them from the Rule 5 Draft.
Likely adds
Gonzalez is the second-highest ranked pitcher in the Red Sox system and finished the year at Double-A, where he’ll likely begin 2024, though there’s a chance he starts in Triple-A. Gonzalez turns 22 in March and posted a 3.96 ERA in 25 starts between High A and Double A last year with a strong 35.2 percent strikeout rate that ranked first among all minor league pitchers with at least 100 innings pitched. But a bloated walk rate of 14.6 percent needs improvement as he progresses through the system.
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RHP Luis Perales
Perales, who turns 21 in April, is the highest-ranking pitcher in the Red Sox system right now but is a bit farther away from debuting. Still, his potential might be too significant to leave him unprotected. In 21 starts in Class A, Perales posted a 3.91 ERA with 29.3 percent strikeout rate and 12.7 percent walk rate. Given he’s only made eight starts in High A, teams might feel he’s not ready to last a full season on a big league roster, but the Red Sox likely don’t want to take the chance.
LHP Shane Drohan
Drohan is the closest prospect pitcher to the majors for the Red Sox, having spent much of 2023 in Triple A. While he dominated in Double A with a 1.32 ERA in six starts, he struggled with a 6.47 ERA in 21 games, 19 starts, when promoted to Triple A. Nevertheless, he’ll be an important depth arm for the Red Sox, similar to how the team viewed Walter and Murphy, as they build out their roster.
Possibilities:
Pitcher Noah Song’s situation was highly unusual. (Chris Carlson / AP Photo)RHP Noah Song
We noted Song’s case above but will put him here as at least a possible addition. Part of the Rule 5 process includes the drafting team needing to put the player on waivers before offering them back to the Red Sox. No other team selected Song this summer when they had the chance after the Phillies put him on waivers. One other thing to note, Song is spending much of the offseason fulfilling his Navy Reserve duties as noted in this story. He’s scheduled to arrive in Red Sox camp for offseason workouts the first week of January. But given his need for development, any team wanting to draft him would have to be mindful that he hasn’t had much time in baseball-specific workouts or winter ball to get up to speed.
RHP Justin Hagenman
Hagenman arrived to the organization along with Nick Robertson from the Dodgers in the Kiké Hernández trade. He offers value as a depth reliever in Triple A with 3.26 ERA with 28 strikeouts and 14 walks in 30 1/3 innings over 16 appearances with Worcester. He’s certainly not a lock, but for an organization that needs upper level depth arms, he’s worth considering.
RHP Ryan Fernandez
Fernandez is another depth reliever that could help fill out the Red Sox system. Again, he’s not a lock for protection. In 42 appearances with Low A, Double A and Triple A, Fernandez posted a 4.14 ERA with a 29.1 percent strikeout rate. He spent much of the year in Triple A where he had a 6.16 ERA and 25.2 percent strikeout rate.
(Top photo of Gonzalez: Tom Priddy / Four Seam Images via AP)
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